prediction

Go straight to the prediction

With the World Cup in South Africa coming up we are eagerly anticipating the announcement from FIFA with the referees chosen for the tournament. The referees in the race was announced in October 2008, and they’ve been through tests, tournaments and rigorous assessments from FIFA.

The list included 38 referees from all the six zones. The final list is expected to be smaller, but how small is anyone’s guess. Last World Cup, in Germany, had 21 referee teams with 5 teams on standby in case of injuries.

As I have a limited knowledge of the referees outside of Europe I will only be guessing on the European referees, but please chime in with your predictions in the comments.

Let’s have a look at the list of European referees on the list of preselected referees from FIFA.

Ivan BEBEK Croatia
Olegario BENQUERENCA Portugal
Massimo BUSACCA Switzerland
Frank DE BLEECKERE Belgium
Thomas EINWALLER Austria
Grzegorz GILEWSKI Poland
Martin HANSSON Sweden
Viktor KASSAI Hungary
Stephane LANNOY France
Tom OVREBO Norway
Roberto ROSETTI Italy
Wolfgang STARK Germany
Alberto UNDIANO Spain
Howard WEBB England

This list includes 14 referees from all around Europe. If we make an assumption that the number of European referees will be either 8 or 10, we will make a ranked list of 10 referees.

The first casualty on the above list is Gregorz Gilewski from Poland. In 2008 he was involved in a match-fixing scandal, and he has not refereed in any of the FIFA tournaments this season.

With 13 referees left on the European list, there is a number of referees that I consider too good to be left home. Roberto Rosetti, Massimo Busacca and Frank De Bleeckere all participated in the last World Cup and with Rosetti refereeing the last EURO final, Busacca refereeing last season’s Champions League final, and Frank De Bleeckere being one of best referees in Europe, these three referees should be a sure bet for the World Cup.

Currently my list looks like this:

Roberto ROSETTI Italy
Massimo BUSACCA Switzerland
Frank DE BLEECKERE Belgium

And with three referees ready, from the list of thirteen eligible referees, I have ten referees from where I must choose seven.

Now, this is somewhat tricky. UEFA operates with a classification of the different referees, ranging from Category 4 till the Elite category. The Elite category is the best referees according to UEFA, with the Premier development category being the promising talents, and the future top referees. From the seven remaining referees, Ivan Bebek and Thomas Einwaller is both in the Premier Development category. Both referees have refereed games in the Champions League, but not on a regular basis. Having not refereed on the top European level on a regular basis is my argument for removing them from the final list of referees. FIFA may have chosen them for future appointments, and maybe we will see one of them as a standby team.

List is now down to eight referees.

Ivan BEBEK Croatia
Olegario BENQUERENCA Portugal
Massimo BUSACCA Switzerland
Frank DE BLEECKERE Belgium
Thomas EINWALLER Austria
Grzegorz GILEWSKI Poland
Martin HANSSON Sweden
Viktor KASSAI Hungary
Stephane LANNOY France
Tom OVREBO Norway
Roberto ROSETTI Italy
Wolfgang STARK Germany
Alberto UNDIANO Spain
Howard WEBB England

All the remaining referees are in the Elite category. Below is a short summary of the different referees, and following these summaries my personal ranking.

Martin Hansson was appointed to the final in the Confederations Cup, a final where his assistant missed a ball-over-the-line situation. Still, Hansson was appointed to the final play-off game between France and Ireland, a game where his team missed Thierry Henry’s infamous handball. It is a difficult situation for FIFA. It is clear they have faith in Hansson, and trusts him with big games. On the other side, they will receive a lot of complaints, and Hansson will be watched closely in each game he is appointed to in the World Cup.

Tom Henning Øvrebø was selected by UEFA to referee the Champions League semi-final between Chelsea and Barcelona last season’s Champions League, where his performance in this match was heavily criticized by media. However, with FIFA it is unknown how much these performances are influencing their choice for the World Cup. Øvrebø did referee two games in the U-17 World Cup, and was selected for multiple World Cup qualifiers. His experience in the Champions League is undoubtedly an advantage.

Wolfgang Stark has been frequently chosen for FIFA tournaments and is ‘the golden boy’ of someone inside UEFA. Last season he refereed more Champions League games than any other European referee, including a semi-final between Barcelona and Chelsea. He has been operating in the shadows of Markus Merk and Herbert Fandel the last decade, but now he is clearly the number one German referee.

Viktor Kassai is a future top referee. He is currently on the Elite category and he has refereed a decent amount of matches in the Champions League, all in the group stage. In EURO 2008 he was selected to be a fourth official, together with other young and promising referees.

Stephane Lannoy was last season promoted from the Premier development category to the Elite category, and he has refereed consistently in the Champions League this season. Like Kassai, he was selected to be fourth official in EURO 2008.

Alberto Undiano is not the most prominent Spanish referee, but he has been an Elite referee since 2007. He was chosen to referee the final of the 2007 U-20 World Cup in Canada, and he did the semi-final in the 2009 U-20 World Cup.

Olegario Benquerenca has been refereeing in the Champions League since 2005. While he has refereed many matches in the group stage, his appearance in the first knockout round last season is currently his biggest accomplishment. As Kassai and Lannoy, Benquerenca was also present at the EURO 2008 as a fourth official.

Howard Webb, the most prominent referee in England, was selected for EURO 2008, and is a frequent face in the Champions League. He has been England’s representative in the FIFA tournaments the last couple of seasons.

With all the remaining referees summarised I can get to ranking them.

The list below is my personal guess for the European referees in the upcoming World Cup.

Massimo BUSACCA Switzerland
Roberto ROSETTI Italy
Frank DE BLEECKERE Belgium
Howard WEBB England
Wolfgang STARK Germany
Tom Henning ØVREBØ Norway
Olegario BENQUERENCA Portugal
Alberto UNDIANO Spain

If UEFA gets ten referees I would include these
Stephane LANNOY France
Martin HANSSON Sweden

Viktor Kassai is unexperienced, and will be a candidate for the next World Cup if he continues the progress. Hansson will be marked by the incident in the play-off, and I am not sure if FIFA would find it appropriate to send him to South Africa after the howler his team made in France.

A lengthy post indeed, and an almost impossible prediction. As always I am interested in comments. If you agree or disagree, or maybe would like to predict the selection from other confederations, please let it be known in the comment section.

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